The 2025-26 Premier League season heads into its final fortnight as a two-horse race, with Arsenal sitting top of the table on 73 points after 34 matches and Manchester City three points behind on 70 — but with a game in hand. With Liverpool already mathematically out of contention after a stuttering second half of the season, and Chelsea, Aston Villa, Newcastle United and Manchester United fighting only for European places, the destination of the trophy will be decided in a handful of fixtures between now and Sunday 24 May.
Where the table stands
Arsenal’s lead, secured through a remarkable run of nine wins from their last 11 league matches, is built on defensive solidity — the league’s lowest goals-conceded total — and the form of William Saliba and Declan Rice. The Gunners host already-relegated Burnley on 18 May, the most fixture-friendly of their remaining games, and travel to a top-half side on the final day.
Manchester City, defending champions in three of the past four seasons, have stumbled into form at exactly the right time. Pep Guardiola’s team have won their last seven league fixtures and have games in hand by virtue of their FA Cup and Champions League runs. The crucial fixture in their schedule — and arguably the most important match of the entire Premier League season — is their game in hand at home, which they must win to keep the title fight alive.
The mathematics of the run-in
Because City have a game in hand, the title is — narrowly — in their own hands. Win every remaining match and they will be champions regardless of what Arsenal do. The earliest scenario in which City could clinch is Tuesday 19 May, in their away fixture at Bournemouth, but only if Arsenal drop points first. The earliest scenario in which Arsenal could clinch is 18 May at home to Burnley, requiring City to lose their three matches up to that point — a possibility too remote to take seriously.
The most likely outcome, according to the Opta supercomputer, is a final-day decider on Sunday 24 May. Opta currently gives Arsenal a 58% chance of lifting the trophy and Manchester City 42%. The combined probability of the title being decided before the final day stands at less than 30%.
The relegation and Champions League battles
At the bottom, Wolverhampton Wanderers were relegated on 20 April after eight years in the Premier League, ending the club’s longest top-flight stay since the 1980s. Burnley followed on 22 April after a 1-0 home defeat to Manchester City, with manager Scott Parker leaving by mutual consent on 30 April. The third relegation place remains contested between Tottenham Hotspur, West Ham United and Nottingham Forest, with Spurs in the most precarious position after five points from their last 10 games under Roberto De Zerbi.
The Champions League race is similarly compressed. Arsenal, Manchester City and Liverpool are confirmed in the top four; the fourth and fifth qualifying places — England has a bonus fifth Champions League slot via UEFA’s coefficient — remain contested between Chelsea, Aston Villa, Newcastle and Michael Carrick’s resurgent Manchester United. The picture will be complicated, as ever, by the FA Cup final and the Europa Conference League final, both of which can shift European qualification at the margins.
The cup distractions
City have a particularly demanding schedule because they remain in two cup competitions. The FA Cup final on Saturday 16 May against Chelsea at Wembley is a prize of its own and a genuine drain on Premier League squad rotation in a fortnight where every point matters. Arsenal, by contrast, exited the FA Cup at the semi-final stage and have no domestic cup involvement during the run-in — a scheduling advantage Mikel Arteta’s squad will need to exploit.
The first weekend of the run-in begins on 2-3 May. The 2026-27 season starts on 22 August, with the World Cup taking place during the summer.
— Thomas Hargreaves, London Capital Post
