In short: A YouGov survey of Labour Party members, published on 19 May 2026, has Andy Burnham as the first-preference leader for 47% of respondents, ahead of Keir Starmer on 31%. The Mayor of Greater Manchester would defeat the Prime Minister in a head-to-head by 59% to 37%. Wes Streeting, who resigned as Health Secretary on 14 May after losing confidence in Sir Keir, would lose decisively to Burnham, Angela Rayner and Ed Miliband. Close to 100 Labour MPs have now called on the Prime Minister to announce a timetable for his departure.
The week of 19 May 2026 has produced the most damaging set of data yet for Sir Keir Starmer’s position at the head of the Labour Party. A YouGov survey of party members, updated on 19 May to include head-to-head leadership scenarios, found that 47% rank Andy Burnham as their first preference for leader, compared with 31% for the current Prime Minister. Asked directly to choose between the two, 59% of members back the Mayor of Greater Manchester and only 37% the incumbent.
The polling lands at a moment of acute parliamentary pressure. According to LabourList, which has been tracking declarations of position, close to 100 Labour MPs have now publicly called on Sir Keir to either resign or to announce a timetable for his departure. Steve Race, a parliamentary private secretary, has joined the wave of resignations after sharing comments by Wes Streeting at the Progress conference on Saturday 16 May.
The numbers behind the membership shift
The YouGov data tells a more nuanced story than the headline figures suggest. Despite Sir Keir’s poor standing on the leadership question, 66% of party members believe he has done a good job as Prime Minister, and 80% say Labour has done a good job in government. The contradiction is resolved in voters’ expectations of the next general election: only 28% of members think Labour is likely to win in 2029 if Sir Keir remains leader, and 61% want him to stand down before then.
On head-to-head match-ups beyond Burnham, the data is unforgiving to Wes Streeting, who has confirmed he will stand if a contest is triggered. According to YouGov, Mr Streeting would lose to Burnham by 80% to 10%, to Angela Rayner by 70% to 19%, and to Ed Miliband by 58% to 28%. The membership appears determined to reward the long-standing critic of Sir Keir from outside Parliament rather than the high-profile rival from within his cabinet.
Rayner emerges as the alternative inside Parliament
If Andy Burnham fails in his attempt to return to the House of Commons via the Makerfield by-election on 18 June, the field narrows quickly. The only realistic challenger from inside the parliamentary Labour Party, according to the YouGov data, is the Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner. A direct contest between Ms Rayner and Sir Keir appears too close to call, with 49% favouring the Prime Minister and 47% his deputy. Both would be preferred by the membership to Mr Miliband.
The crucial threshold remains 81 nominations from sitting Labour MPs — equivalent to 20% of the parliamentary party — needed to trigger a formal contest. According to the most recent reporting, 110 backbenchers have signed a letter urging the party to avoid a leadership challenge, against the roughly 100 who want Sir Keir to set out his exit. The arithmetic still favours the Prime Minister, but only narrowly.
What the membership wants Starmer to do
One striking finding from the YouGov survey is that a majority of members — 56% — say Sir Keir should stand in any leadership election if one is called, while only 36% think he should step aside and allow other candidates to compete among themselves. The membership appears to want a genuine contest in which the incumbent is given the chance to win or lose, rather than a stage-managed succession.
That preference is uncomfortable for the Prime Minister’s most loyal supporters, who have argued that any contest risks an extended period of paralysis at a time when the Iran war, sticky inflation and a sluggish economy are demanding the government’s full attention. For Sir Keir personally, however, it offers a thin sliver of opportunity: if the membership wants him to fight, and he can muster a credible reform package by the autumn, he may yet survive the summer with his premiership intact.
The decision of when, or whether, to face the membership now belongs to Sir Keir and to the small group of Labour MPs who decide whether to put their names to a nomination. The Makerfield by-election on 18 June will provide the next concrete test. Until then, Westminster will continue to watch the slow, public erosion of authority that is the defining feature of this parliament’s third year.
